The interannual rate of inflation in the United States fell again in April, for the tenth consecutive month, and stood at 4.9%, one tenth less than in March, according to data published this Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The timid decrease of one tenth occurs after the drop of one point in March compared to February, which was the strongest decrease since the indicator began to decrease in July 2022. It is the lowest figure since May 2021 .

In monthly terms, however, prices continue their upward streak and rose four tenths. These data will be defining for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to decide at its next meeting in June whether to increase interest rates again or pause. The housing index was the one that contributed the most to the monthly increase in prices, with a rise of four tenths. Year-on-year, it accumulates a rise of 8.1% compared to April 2022. The food index remained unchanged in April and in year-on-year terms it accumulates a rise of 7.7%.

Core inflation, which measures the rise in consumer prices minus food and energy prices, rose four tenths in April and placed its interannual rate at 5.6%. The inflation data is released at a key moment, in which it is closely analyzed whether the constant interest rate hikes carried out by the Fed are having the desired effect of containing prices.

Since it reached its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation has been falling as a result of the increases that seek to cool the economy. The last, the tenth increase, took place last week and was 0.25 points, so interest rates currently sit in a range of between 5 and 5.25%. The president of the regulator, Jerome Powell, explained in the press conference after the announcement that future rate hikes will depend on the macroeconomic figures that the country registers in the coming weeks and that data such as unemployment or the inflation rate will be essential for decide whether to stop the rises.

In any case, the Fed needs more than a month to make sure that inflationary pressures are on a downward trajectory. According to analysts, there is an 81% chance that the Fed will pause at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which would allow them to assess the impact of their previous actions and monitor inflationary pressures before making further adjustments in his monetary policy.

According to Kenneth Tjonasam, an analyst at Global, this scenario would likely benefit long-duration growth proxies, as lower interest rates tend to support companies with higher growth prospects and longer investment horizons.

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By Nail

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